Latest Gallup Poll Says Minorities Likely to Factor in Final Results

In this blog entry, I will talk about polling, especially the Gallup poll and its most recent findings about the minorities’ impact on Election this year. Then I will tie into what that means for us as a group of deaf voters in America.


Here's the LATEST Gallup Poll:


http://www.gallup.com/poll/111703/Final-Presidential-Estimate-Obama-55-McCain-44.aspx


The Gallup poll is well known in history for being one of the most stable, non-partisan, and thorough poll ever. The Gallup poll has decided that based on polling, Obama will win the election 55% to McCain’s 44%. I believe it is dependable poll because the Gallup poll is famous for being neutral, independent of any political affiliation. From the Wikipedia page on the Gallup poll:

To ensure his independence and objectivity, Dr. Gallup resolved that he would undertake no polling that was paid for or sponsored in any way by special interest groups such as the Republican and Democratic parties, a commitment that Gallup upholds to this day.

George Gallup gave birth to modern non-partisan polling in 1936 when he was able to correctly predict the year’s presidential election by asking a sample group of only 5,000 people with diverse backgrounds, economical status, and political opinions. Over the years, the Gallup poll has only been wrong twice – first time with the infamous Dewey victory prediction in 1948. You might remember the famous photo below of Harry Truman triumphantly holding up a newspaper that incorrectly stated a Dewey win in the presidential election. The second error in the Gallup poll’s history was in 1976 when the poll predicted a narrow victory by Gerard Ford; in reality, Jimmy Carter won by slim margin. Due to its reliability, the Gallup has been one of the most checked-upon and oft-referenced information on public opinion.



During the 2008 presidential election, the Gallup poll has maintained a daily poll by asking roughly 1,000 adults every day. The tracking poll is published every three days. Thus the poll is frequently updated and reliable in consideration of the changing public opinion.

What I’d like to emphasize about the Gallup poll’s most recent finding is not the predicting part but the fact that Gallup has found that minority groups will make a major difference in this election. Here’s an excerpt from the Gallup poll:

An Obama victory would also owe a great debt to overwhelming support from racial and ethnic minorities. McCain led among white voters, 51% to 44%, but Obama more than made up for that with an 83% to 13% advantage among non-whites, including a 97% to 1% advantage among blacks and a 73% to 24% lead among Hispanics.

According to Gallup's final pre-election polls, the last time a presidential candidate won without winning the white vote was Bill Clinton in 1992. That year George Bush narrowly beat Clinton by two points among white voters, 41% to 39%, with 20% supporting third party candidate Ross Perot. Prior to that, Gerald Ford in 1976 received 52% of the white vote to Jimmy Carter's 46%, but Carter won the election with 85% of the non-white vote.

The message that this poll sends is: a minority group’s strong vote can be pivotal in winning an election. Thus, if the deaf people were to assemble themselves to be a strongly defined group of voters – it IS enough to swing an election. Also, the more attention that minorities receive in elections, the better news it is for the deaf people because we are a minority in a hearing world. The more people pay attention to the “little people,” the more we are empowered. And in this election, through the Gallup finding, the minorities have proved their might in voting.


Bottom line: VOTE, even though you think “your vote doesn’t matter”… It DOES!